Predictions Don’t Matter

By Hoda Mehr Thu, Oct 29, 2020

Hey Scoopers,

In the absence of any good news, the market dipped into the red zone. — More on that in the “Overall Market” section.

Beyond the overall market, investors celebrated one eCommerce stock’s double whammy of a quarter while worried about another eCommerce stock’s future. — More on that in the “What’s Up?” and “What’s Down?” sections.

Oh, by the way, none of the stock market predictions for the election matter. At least that’s what history tells us. — More on that in the “Water Cooler” section.

But, first, here is a recap of what happened in the market yesterday:

Market Recap

• U.S. markets: The stock market indices unanimously ended Wednesday in the red. Scroll down to the “Overall Market” section to read more.
• Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin’s price rally slowed down on Wednesday, although it managed to stay above the $13,000 level.

Our research team has been hard at work getting ready for November 3rd (and beyond).

And TONIGHT, October 29th at 8PM (EST) / 5PM (PST), we’re hosting a special election edition presentation to share our findings and prepare our readers for the post-election market.

Click here to register for this free special event now

Worries & Jitters

The market had no reason to rally on Wednesday, and all three indices wrapped the day deeply in the red. As we all know, the worries about a new round of lockdowns due to the virus and the election jitters are the two important factors dragging the market in the last few weeks.

A Double Whammy

So, what happened?

Shares of Pinterest (Ticker: PINS) were up by more than 21% on Wednesday. The company announced its latest quarterly earnings, and not only it managed to impress investors by its last quarter, but it also raised its forecast for the entire fiscal year. A good quarter and a good forecast were the double whammy investors wanted to see, and the stock surged.

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Can It Last Longer?

So, what happened?

Shares of Shopify (Ticker: SHOP) were down by more than 5% on Wednesday. The company is expected to announce its latest quarterly earnings on Thursday, and it seems investors are worried about the results and locked their gains in advance of the earnings. After the pandemic-driven rally, it appears that investors are wondering how long it will last.

Funny enough, it was only two days ago that the company’s partnership with Tik Tok excited the investors about Shopify’s future.

None Of It Matters!

So what happened?

The media spends so much time predicting the direction of the market after the election. Gurus discuss what would happen if X wins over Y. In reality and based on history, none of it matters. If you look at the stock market’s return during the tenure of each of the presidents in the past, you’d see that in most cases, the market went up, and none of the pre-election predictions mattered.

If you are worried sick about the impact of the stock market’s election, look at this chart and keep calm! Who wins the election won’t matter. At least, that’s what the history tells us:

(Source: Chart by Scoop’s Editorial Team, Data from theBalance.com)

If you have any questions, or suggestions let us know by emailing us at members@tradestocks.com. We look forward to hearing from you.

About the Author

The authors of this Scoop are the editorial team at Stock Card, led by Hoda Mehr. Hoda Mehr is CEO and Co-founder of Stock Card and the host of Renegade Investors podcast. She runs a community of 40,000 stock market investors and manages Stock Card's successful flagship portfolio, Roll with Our CEO, on Stock Card Portfolio Store. Hoda is an Economist with an MBA from Concordia, John Molson School of Business. She applies behavioral economics, data journalism, and storytelling to all aspects of her work. Before starting Stock Card, Hoda worked as a strategy and insights lead at technology companies including Symantec, Aimia and Sony. Create a free account to do your stock market research easily and mistake-free: Stock Card Stock Card